Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Price Report for August 23rd, 2018

Aug 23, 2018 --- Blog

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Price Report for August 23rd, 2018
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Market Commentary: 

Yesterday at around 6pm EDT news broke that the SEC decided to reject all 9 of the bitcoin ETF's that were up for consideration due to lack of regulated markets and susceptibility to manipulation. While this outcome was widely expected by market participants and analysts, we were still surprised with how well price held up in the face of the disappointing news. In fact, the heightened volatility that we were expecting during and following the announcement actually came earlier in the day telling us that the market was already anticipating and preparing for a denial which certainly muted the response (and is a sign of a maturing marketplace). Not only that, but the price action since then has been steady and encouraging around the 6400 $ level which is still right in the middle of the [members-only text] trading range, another good sign for the bulls in our opinion.



6-Hour Chart:

The 6-hour chart remains the most coherent view of the short term setup where we can see that price indeed found support in the [members-only text] area and along the still mildly bullish 50 SMA which led to a [members-only text] signal late yesterday as well as a [members-only text] today, all net positives for the bulls. Also note that near term market structure continues to slowly improve despite the somewhat bearish candle formations, yet more evidence that the bears are getting weaker over time.  Having said that, the mixed EMA's are already acting as VST resistance, the 50 SMA continues to accelerate below the flatlined 200 SMA, and the bottom of the [members-only text] is sitting just overhead which very well could keep price below the [members-only text] region over the next day or two.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and the Stochastic are almost fully recharged back into officially oversold territory, RSI continues to confirm the near term resiliency, MACD is stabilizing around its zeroline, and PPO is still neutral, all of which suggest [members-only text] as we head into the weekend. Exchange volumes are confirming this with mixed indications, as is the A/D line which remains under pressure, although there is still a lot of exploration to be done above the market in terms of volume profile so [members-only text] remains a possibility. While recent price action and the signal its sending to the market over the past 24 hours has been encouraging from a longer term perspective, the short term technicals are pointing to [members-only text] so patience remains a virtue.

  
NOTE: The chart below is not the complete chart shown to members. Subscribe today for full access.




3-Day Chart:

We zoom back out to the 3-day chart seeing as though the daily continues to be noisy, and we can see that a [members-only text] signal and [members-only text]formation printed on the close yesterday following a rejection at the still bearish EMA's, however a [members-only text] signal has already emerged on the new candle today which is quite encouraging moving forward (if it can paint). Also note that the 200 SMA continues to slowly rise beneath the market in support of the long term bull market, price is still finding legitimate support in the [members-only text]area, and there very well could be a double bottom forming with a true secondary higher low which would [members-only text] heading into Fall. On the other hand, the EMA's are still moving to the downside, as is the 50 SMA, [members-only text]continues to build overhead, and the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bearish out in front of the market, all of which will keep sell pressure on the market even if the bulls are slowly regaining control.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that the Stochastic is still pinned in oversold territory, Willy is making progress towards a full recharge, RSI is actually showing some near term resilience, MACD is steady around its zeroline, and PPO continues to flash weak buy signals, all suggesting longer term hidden strength but near term indecision and thus stagnation. Additionally, exchange volumes remain slightly bearish but are also still dwindling thus showing lack of conviction, the A/D line is holding up well overall but is still under some minor near term pressure, and volume profile continues to fill in quite nicely other than the notch around 5000 $ that may or may not be reached during this cycle. Over the shorter term we expect price to [members-only text], and although we cannot rule out at selloff down to [members-only text] before a sustainable reversal materializes, we think the reaction by the market to bad news yesterday is a big step towards avoiding such a fate.

 
NOTE: The chart below is not the complete chart shown to members. Subscribe today for full access.




Market Summary:

Given the intra-range volatility we've seen over the course of this week without a legitimate breakout, in conjunction with the fact that price has managed to stay within the main range despite an early announcement from the SEC, tells us that neither bulls nor bears are ready to take the risk of trying to break us out of the [members-only text] range over the next few days. That said, from a longer termperspective the longer the bulls can keep price above 5774 $ the better the odds of an eventual resolution higher become, and the [members-only text].



Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term ***[UPDATED on 8/23/2018]**:  No new ProTrade ideas at this time.

 
2.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term ***[UPDATED on 8/22/2018]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stoploss near the [members-only text]level and a target of [members-only text].

3.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term **[UPDATED on 8/21/2018]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stoploss near the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text].

4.) Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term **[UPDATED on 8/21/2018]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stoploss near the [members-only text]level and a target of [members-only text].



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Cheers!

AKWAnalytics and S3052




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