You can find our full Bitcoin forecast for 18th September below - here we discuss what is currently influencing its price and where it can go now!
Bitcoin Market Commentary
The trendless chop that the bitcoin markets have been dealing with over the past several days has remained intact over the past 24 hours as expected given uncertain technicals, slow newsflow (in terms of crypto), neutral seasonality, and mixed sentiment so we still think there is a fairly good chance that the current consolidation extends out to the end of the workweek hence we're staying neutral like we have been for a while now. That said, we do think that a break of the 10,000 - 10,500 $ near-term trading range is likely at some point before the weekly close so we'll stay ready with setups both above and below the market in order to be ready regardless of what the market throws at us.
We'll begin by returning to the 6-hour chart for a closer view of the short-term setup where we can see that price is still below the intact descending triangle trendline and continues to struggle with the moving averages while the OTE remains a supportive area, all of which is keeping price pinned in the low-10k's $ which we think will continue over the near-term. The mixed SCMR signals, the current Doji candle, and the uncertain market structure also point to more choppy sideways action within the range over the coming days, however the falling shorter-term moving averages and the still-active dynamic resistance dots overhead suggest that there is a slight bearish bias moving forward, therefore, we think a breakdown below 10k is more likely than a breakout above 10.5k $ once a move materializes (although we're not at all confident in this call).
As far as shorter-term momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all still in the process of recharging with a bit of room left to run, MACD continues to hover just below its zero line, and PPO remains neutral overall, none of which is directionally helpful over the near-term thus our call for more consolidation appears justified for now. The mixed and still falling exchange volumes and slowly dropping A/D line confirm this view, however, the volume profile setup continues to improve which should help the bulls play defense if weakness emerges in the near future.
We'll also revisit the daily chart today where we can see that both the descending channel and descending triangle remain firmly intact as price continues to consolidate on neutral SCMR signals and increasingly small and mixed candle formations while shorter-term market structure remains uncertain but is becoming heavier for the time being, none of which suggests a move out of either pattern in either direction any time soon. The fact that price is now well below the still rising shorter-term moving averages while the Ichimoku Cloud stays slightly bearish out in front of the market but bullish around it also points to more broad consolidation between 9k - 11k $ before the market is ready to make a bigger move, therefore we see no need to rush into anything before getting more convincing directional signals.
Moving on to medium-term momentum and volume, notice that RSI has been making more progress to the downside recently, as has the Stochastic, while PPO continues to flash buy signals, which bodes well for the bulls moving forward, although Willy continues to tread water in no man's land and MACD remains pinned at its zero line so there is certainly still room for more consolidation within the active patterns over the coming days and weeks. The still dwindling exchange volumes and porous volume profile setup confirm this view, but the A/D line remains strong so we'll continue to lean bullish from a longer-term perspective.
Considering that the market is still treading water in the 10,100's $ on lackluster price action and highly uncertain technicals we continue to think that our call for neutrality is the proper play, at least until the 10k - 10.5k $ trading range is broken. Again, we think this range is likely to be taken out before the weekly close on Sunday evening (US), however, we're not nearly as confident in which way the market will actually head so we'll try to stay ready for whatever ends up materializing later this week.
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