The bitcoin markets continue to consolidate just below the 4000 $ level today on what is still rather bullish price action and encouraging short-term technicals, which we'll get to via the 4-hour chart below, so our forecast from yesterday for more sideways before another move up to the [member's-only content] $ region remains intact, although we also still expect resistance to put an end to the rally there. That said, as long as the bulls can defend the [member's-only content] $ level on what we expect to be a legitimate pullback after the next leg higher then we'll get another higher low and the odds of a breakout above [member's-only content] $ will increase dramatically (which would likely put the kibosh on the bear market as well). If not then we'll keep searching for the cycle low, but regardless we'll [member's-only content].
We'll begin this last day of winter with a look at the aforementioned 4-hour chart where we can see that it appears as though a near-term bottom has been found in the [member's-only content] area which is allowing price to slowly levitate higher off of those levels which is sparking new [member's-only content] signals and is helping short-term market structure to improve markedly, all of which is fairly good news for the bulls moving forward. Also note that the EMA's are still rising and are providing support for the time being, all of the SMA's remain in steady uptrends below the market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still firmly bullish out in front of the market, all suggesting that indeed another leg to the upside to test the [member's-only content] zone or the [member's-only content] area are likely in the not too distant future.
Moving on to momentum and volume, its fairly surprising to see Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic all recharged at least to their respective midlines despite practically no real weakness in the market recently, MACD is almost back to its zeroline, and PPO is back to neutral on the way to flashing buy signals, so it does look like [member's-only content] at this time. The still strong A/D line, the slightly more bullish exchange volumes, and the healthy looking volume profile setup all confirm the bullish bias moving forward, although we still cannot ignore the VP notches that we know reside around [member's-only content] $ and [member's-only content] $ so we still think there is a good chance that those areas are tested after the current rally terminates in the [member's-only content]'s $.
Next up we'll zoom out to the 3-day chart for a broader view of the medium-term setup where we can see that the ascending triangle that we discussed last week remains intact for now, and considering that the falling 50 SMA and lower supply area are both sitting just overhead while support continues to build below the market we expect this pattern to persist for awhile longer (implying more consolidation between ~[member's-only content] $ moving forward). Additionally, SCMR continues to print [member's-only content] while market structure improves and the EMA's head higher, which are good signs for the bulls, although the longer-term SMA's continue to fall and the Ichimoku Cloud is still very bearish so upside appears to be limited as well. Once a breakout from this pattern does materialize, though, price will move quickly, however we don't expect that to occur for at least another [member's-only content] days and at this point its a crapshoot which way the market will break.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, notice that Willy and the Stochastic continue to move higher but are getting pretty close to overbought, RSI is slowly trending higher and still has room to run, MACD is weakening slightly but remains above its zeroline, and PPO is neutral but on the verge of flashing sell signals, a hodgepodge of signals that aren't very helpful with short to medium term directionality. That said, the fact that exchange volumes continue to dwindle while the A/D line slowly recovers and the volume profile setup continues to improve all hint at [member's-only content] right now, which is why we think [member's-only content] remains the play moving forward.
Given how tame volatility has gotten over the past few weeks we think a breakout from the short-term trading range between ~[member's-only content] $ is likely to materialize before [member's-only content] when the weekly candle prints. In fact, due to the longer-term Gann Fan that we have been discussing for the past several weeks, which is closing in on the market right now, we need to be prepared for even more vol over the coming days and weeks that could break the broader medium-term range as well. While we still think that the path of least resistance is sideways for the foreseeable future, we need to be prepared for more intense price action before too long which is why we are [member's-only content] until more directional clarity emerges.