Bitcoin Price Report for April 14, 2017

Apr 14, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports

Market Commentary:

The choppy conditions have intensified over the past 24 hours, as has the spread between Bitfinex and the other major Western exchanges.  USD withdrawals continue to be suspended due to a blockage of wire transfers by US-based bank Wells Fargo, which is causing a mini panic buying spree in order to get capital out.  While this is not the fault of Bitfinex, it is troubling nonetheless. Adding to the uncertainty are the technicals which continue to paint a murky picture given many timeframe discrepancies that are resulting in mixed trading signals depending on vantage point.  

While we continue to lean 
[members-only text] from a longer term perspective, it looks to us like we could be in store for additional [members-only text] once the current countertrend bounce has completed.  A move back down to test the lower half of the previously discussed weekly pennant formation would likely recharge the indicators on all timeframes, and would set the stage for a move up to [members-only text]. We will be ready and waiting with dry powder for the final leg of the correction (if we get it).

4-Hour Chart:

We want to finish off this week with the 4-hour chart seeing as though it has been fairly accurate in terms of signals recently.  We can see that price has dipped further into the upper demand area following a test and failure at the broken 50 SMA earlier in the week, although we seem to be finding some support at the top of the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud now.  Also note that SCMR is trying to paint a [members-only text] candle now, however it is surrounded by [members-only text]and the [members-only text].  Additionally, new dynamic resistance is now painting around [members-only text] and we have a new, yet minor, supply area between [members-only text].  

Moving on to momentum and volume, things appear to be getting better although not quite at the point of reversal.  We can see that Willy and RSI are bouncing but remain in solid downtrends, the Stochastic still has a bit of room to run to the downside, and MACD remains below the zeroline (although we do have a small bull div working now).  Additionally, as previously mentioned the 50 SMA has been broken to the downside and the EMA's are now bearish and heading lower (about to cross the 50 SMA as well), all while the 200 SMA continues to flatten out around 1115 $.  The fact that price is now caught between the 50 and 200 SMA's, in addition to now bearish near term market structure, has us wanting to 
[members-only text] for the time being.  Finally, volume indications remain mixed with sellers dominating the last few bars as price heads back down into a fairly large volume profile notch, although the A/D line is still signaling that the longer term bull market remains intact.
Daily Chart:

We return to the daily chart today for a final look at the medium term setup for this week.  Here too market structure has shifted to bearish, at least short term, following a failure to break into the ATH supply area.  This is also where the [members-only text] zone sat, so it makes sense that sellers would become more active at those levels.  That said, things don't look as bad as they perhaps should considering that SCMR is still painting [members-only text] candles (no [members-only text]yesterday), there still isn't any new [members-only text] to speak of, and price is already finding near term support in the upper demand area and around the EMA's (which are still bullish btw).  We can also see that the Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish despite some recent contraction, and volume profile is looking better than it has in a long time (albeit more work still needs to be done to the downside).

In terms of momentum, we are on the right track but nowhere near the goal of recharging the oscillators.  Willy is just now topping out in overbought territory, RSI never made it but looks heavy regardless, the Stochastic has already rolled over, MACD is about to cross the zeroline, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals.  While all of this may sound pretty dire, what it says to us is that a continuation to the downside is probably in order to establish a higher low and fully recharge momentum (a good thing in the context of the long germ uptrend).  Given where the Ichimoku Cloud sits, as well as where the shorter term moving averages are on the 6-hour chart above, we still are interested in 
[members-only text] in order to try to catch a countertrend bounce.  Having said that, we will not be taking larger longer term positions until we get down closer to the [members-only text] area.
Market Summary:

For the first time in awhile we are expecting a rather uneventful weekend in terms of directionality. While there very well could be sporadic rangy volatility, we think that generally speaking the market will try to grind sideways as bulls and bears battle it out over near term support and resistance.  For the time being the broad trading range appears to be between [members-only text], and we think it will hold, however if not it seems more likely that the market breaks down rather than up.  A move below the 1141 $ lows would likely put a bullseye on our still intact VST ProTrade entry area now sitting between [members-only text].  

Hopefully next week we can gleen more clarity on both the technical and fundamental fronts, but until then we are beholden to the whims of a currently illiquid market.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/14/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/13/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/11/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].