Bitcoin Price Report for March 27, 2017
Mar 27, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Quite the dichotomous weekend we just had. Late Friday the market began to spiral lower on rising fears of a hard fork following a Medium post by a BU dev that led to numerous speculations. This is conjunction with a short term technical picture that had deteriorated significantly throughout the day led to a breakdown below the key 944 $ support level, and eventually a tag below 900 $ reaching a local low on Stamp of 891 $ before all was said and done. On Saturday the market slowly tried to recover, albeit it in rather unimpressive fashion, bouncing around the low to mid-900's $ as players continued to try to decipher the implications and probabilities regarding the current situation. As we moved into the latter half of the weekend, however, spirits began to pick up given certain key metrics used as data in the scaling debate turned back in favor of Core/status quo, which gave traders some cover to push prices higher. This allowed the market to move up to test the still psychologically important 1000 $ level, which was just taken out moments ago.
Now we find ourselves sitting around the 1000 $ level entering this new week, what is the final week of March. There is nothing notable about this time of year from a seasonality perspective, which means for the time being we are likely going to be trading mostly on the technicals seeing as though the fundamentals remain mixed. We would not be at all surprised to see the market continue to consolidate between [members-only text] over the short to medium term as the longer term charts continue to recharge, especially since the price action over the past 24 hours has been very indicative of consolidative conditions.
The 6-hour chart below remains a mess technically speaking, although things admittedly look better than they did late last week. We can see that price found a local low at the bottom of the lower demand area on multiple positive volume and momentum indications. Notice that trading volumes became bullishly divergent while price was falling well outside of the volume profile value area, and the A/D line never took that much of a hit either. Also note that the stochastic got back down into officially oversold territory but on a bullish divergence, Willy and RSI also both painted bullish divs although not in oversold territory, MACD was divergent as well and is now above the zeroline, and PPO is still flashing strong buy signals. Now the oscillators are [members-only text]with some [members-only text] as well.
On the other hand, price action is trying to turn positive once again following a rather confusing SCMR [members-only text] setup complete with a [members-only text] and two [members-only text], however price continues to struggle to move back out of the lower demand areas despite these signals. Additionally, resistance in the form of SMA's, dynamic resistance, supply areas, and [members-only text] zones all sit at multiple levels above the market so there is alot of wood to chop for bulls to get back into an uptrend, not to mention the fact that the Ichimoku Cloud is still bearish and expanding to the downside. Overall we think the market may be ready to [members-only text] for the next week or two, at least, although very short term it looks like more upside is in the cards.
Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that once again price found support along an adjusted medium term uptrend line which has led to a local low and a [members-only text] candle. Obviously we have seen this movie before, in fact just last week, however given the completion of an ABC correction paired with oversold momentum we think that this one could have more legs than its predecessors. Notice how stretched Willy and the Stochastic are to the downside while RSI and MACD both paint small bullish divergences. Additionally, PPO is still flashing strong buy signals, the 200 SMA remains in its uptrend and has yet to be breached, and despite being pierced on the lows the Ichimoku Cloud remains generally bullish.
Conversely, volume profile remains porous in many regions both above and below the market, reinforcing the notion that more price discovery is needed in this [members-only text] range prior to resolving one way or the other later this year. While we still think the eventually resolution will be [members-only text], we need to temper our [members-only text] given we could be stuck around current levels for quite awhile. That said, there will still be opportunities in the market, they will just be slightly less favorable and slightly more risky than we have been used to over the past 4 - 6 months.
As previously mentioned, it looks as though there is going to be at least a minor continuation to the upside now that price has broken back above 1000 $. If price can breakthrough the [members-only text] level then it looks to us like the next line of resistance is around [members-only text], and above that is [members-only text] and [members-only text], although we would be surprised to see price get much above there given significant resistance zones all the way from [members-only text]. We would like need to see a pullback prior to testing those upper regions of the trading range, else we would want to considering getting short.
We also want to mention that we think that we will get another chance to buy [members-only text], at least on a [members-only text], so we want to maintain patience for the time being. There is an area of longer term support that remains in the [members-only text] that we think ultimately presents the best opportunity, so we hope we get a shot at it. If not, then the market is even more bullish than we suspected and we will be looking for shorter term setups at key near term support levels.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term**: No VST ProTrades at this time due to [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/27/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/27/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ENTERED @ 480 $; CLOSED @ 944 $ for +96.67% PROFIT]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].