Bitcoin Price Report for November 11, 2016
Nov 11, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
The bitcoin price is holding up nicely following our issuance of new ProTrades late yesterday afternoon. While the market hasn't moved that much since then, price has been slowly plodding to the upside, a more important signal than many realize given the technical picture we will discuss below.
From a fundamental perspective, bitcoin has probably never been in a better position than it is today. Long term scaling efforts are in the process of being implemented while hash rate and user numbers continue to grow despite the halving and price increases, respectively. Additionally, the global macro environment remains favorable for cryptocurrency in general considering China continues to devalue the Yuan, India's cash ban is already having hugely negative repercussions, and massive fiscal stimulus combined with higher rates in the US very well could lead to an inflationary scenario. Regarding the technicals, lets move on the the charts below for a look at what the weekend might bring.
The 12-hour and the daily charts make the cut today as we want to have a good short to medium term idea of what the market is currently doing. First lets look at the daily chart as it will frame the shorter term setup nicely. We can see that things are still going according to plan in terms of the Cup & Handle formation that has been taking shape over the course of the past 6 months. Despite a bearish rejection in the supply area on the Trump spike, there has not yet been a true topping signal in this area yet and [members-only text]. We also still have very strong dynamic support at [members-only text], the EMA's are confirming the near term uptrend, the 200-day SMA is confirming the medium to long term uptrend, and we have trendline support still rising into the [members-only text] area.
As far as daily momentum goes, indications aren't as bad as one might expect considering how bullish things have been leaning recently. Willy remains pinned just under overbought territory, RSI is hanging out in no man's land but is holding the 50-line, the Stochastic is elevated but does not look extended, and MACD has some ways to run if it can hold the centerline. On the other hand, PPO is still showing sell signals, volume profile remains porous down into the high-500's $, and total exchange volumes are rather mixed. All in all we would say that the daily technicals are looking fairly bullish, however there is some room for downside if things start failing at resistance in the coming days. Having said that, the lowest we see price going for now is the [members-only text] area which we are already ready to buy as a ST ProTrade.
Next up is the 12-hour chart for a bit more granularity on what has been taking place recently, and what might take place over the weekend. First of all, notice that we have a small Cup & handle pattern forming on this chart as well which would indicate that the market is getting ready to make another move to the upside, although you could also make the case that it is an ascending triangle too (another bullish formation). Also, SCMR is once again painting a [members-only text] candle following a hold of the near term EMA's on the most recent pullback, the 200 SMA is now heading back to the upside, and the momentum indicators look recharged enough for another move in our opinion.
Given that we are now in both the VST and the MT ProTrades, we feel comfortable holding tight at current levels. No doubt that we want to continue to be [members-only text], but we also realize that the market may simply be too bullish to let players get in at [members-only text]. Regardless, we still like bitcoin going into the end of the year so our long bias makes sense to us if for no other reason than seasonality.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 11/10/2016]**: (a) We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
(b) **[UPDATED on 11/11/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/11/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/10/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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